| Rebounding Economy vs. The
Unknowns — April 2004 In order to better convey our views on the markets to our clients, we are pleased to announce the launch of both our new website and the introduction of our very own Quarterly Newsletter. Each quarter we will try to capture the spirit of the markets and the ever-changing global economy in a newsletter accessible on our website. Don't expect polished literary prose but rather a timely analysis of the current market trends… I know you would rather have me working on your portfolios than polishing up my English grammar! We are excited about this new opportunity to communicate with you and hope you find the newsletter and website to be both educational and insightful.
It is sometimes difficult to see the horizon over choppy waters. The chop right now is being caused by the convergence of a rebounding economy and a long list of unknowns that are now commonplace in a post 9-11 world. Yet in my view, the US equity markets seem to be getting back to a more "normal" rhythm. After a tumultuous start to the new century and a wonderful rebound in 2003, investors are beginning to measure risk and rewards again (Google IPO notwithstanding). Over the last few quarters the boring and mundane companies (i.e. industrial, materials, farm equipment etc.) have begun to outperform the higher profile NASDAQ oriented ones. This is a trend that should continue. The run-up in stock prices in 2003 was the result of a combination of investors focusing on the pending pick-up in the economy and a significant rebound in corporate profits; these two trends have continued into 2004 but have yet to push stock prices higher. As we enter the 2nd quarter it appears that the economy is fundamentally in good shape. There have been strong GDP and productivity numbers for several consecutive quarters and corporations have, in large part, used the economic downturn to build stronger balance sheets, restructure debt, contain costs and recently grow earnings at an impressive clip. As the expansion continues employment should improve; we have already begun to see signs of this in the March and April employment data.
So where do the markets go from here? I am cautiously optimistic that by the end of the year these positive economic trends will outweigh the unknowns and I still think that the year should end with the broad market indexes higher by about 7-10 percent for the year. The road will be steep however as the list of unknowns seems rather large including: How fast will interest rates rise; Will the US dollar continue to fall; Will energy prices stay high and for how long; How will the international economies do, particularly China; How will the markets respond to the presidential election; How big will the US budget deficits get; Will the consumer continue to spend as interest rates rise; and finally How will the markets be influenced by the geopolitical events in Iraq, the greater Middle East, and elsewhere? In large part the individual answers to these questions will drive the tone and the collective answers will play a significant role in the direction of the stock market in the coming quarters. But I feel that in the end equities will rise as a result of continued good economic growth and the fact that there is no other game in town. We expect the bond market to continue to be weak and as rates rise real estate looks over extended at best and in some areas very over priced. This should be a year where economic and corporate fundamentals mean something again and the fundamentals still look good.
We have experienced a great deal as investors and as a nation in this young century and we truly live in interesting times. I will continue to work hard to monitor and build your portfolios and to redouble our efforts to find new companies that offer opportunities to enhance the performance of our portfolios. I encourage you to take advantage of the new website when it is up and running in the coming weeks particularly the "Ask Will" tool. As always I am grateful for your trust and look forward to this opportunity to better communicate with you.
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